![]() 5330 Agate Way Carmichael, CA 95608 |
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![]() 5412 Ravine Creek Way Elk Grove, CA 95758 |
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![]() 12045 Mandolin Way Rancho Cordova, CA 95742 |
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![]() 7217 Pine Grove Way Folsom, CA 95630 |
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![]() 8756 Rubystone Ct Elk Grove, CA 95624 |
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![]() 9308 Engleside Ct Elk Grove, CA 95758 |
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![]() 104 Herrill Ct Folsom, CA 95630 |
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![]() 2821 Babson Dr Elk Grove, CA 95758 |
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![]() 4211 Brookfield Dr Sacramento, CA 95823 |
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![]() 2010 Bonavista Way Sacramento, CA 95832 |
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![]() 5220 Mckellar Ave Sacramento, CA 95824 |
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![]() 6829 Fruitridge Rd Sacramento, CA 95820 |
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![]() 3930 Balverne Ct Antelope, CA 95843 |
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![]() 3320 9th Ave Sacramento, CA 95817 |
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![]() 2713 16th St Sacramento, CA 95818 |
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![]() 6801 Grant Ave Carmichael, CA 95608 |
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![]() 6641 Rio Linda Blvd Rio Linda, CA 95673 |
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![]() 3311 Franklin Blvd Sacramento, CA 95818 |
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![]() 8013 Hartwick Way Sacramento, CA 95828 |
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![]() 6549 RIO OSO Dr Rancho Murieta, CA 95683 |
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![]() 9682 Alta Mesa Rd Wilton, CA 95693 |
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![]() 5 Northwich Ct Sacramento, CA 95832 |
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![]() 2057 Danvers Way Sacramento, CA 95832 |
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![]() 2085 Edgewater Rd Sacramento, CA 95815 |
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![]() 5046 53rd Ave Sacramento, CA 95823 |
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![]() 3337 Mas Amilos Way Sacramento, CA 95835 |
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![]() 5026 Creek View Way Sacramento, CA 95841 |
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![]() 5855 13th St Sacramento, CA 95822 |
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![]() 2731 Gunn Rd Carmichael, CA 95608 |
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![]() 79 Aiken Way Sacramento, CA 95819 |
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![]() 4229 Alan Dr North Highlands, CA 95660 |
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![]() 6564 Narrowgauge Way Sacramento, CA 95823 |
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![]() 7613 Muschetto Ct Citrus Heights, CA 95621 |
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![]() 2925 Babson Dr Elk Grove, CA 95758 |
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![]() 4815 Crest Dr Sacramento, CA 95835 |
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![]() 1809 Verano St Sacramento, CA 95838 |
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![]() 5975 Laguna Ranch Cir Sacramento, CA 95823 |
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![]() 8817 Amberjack Way Sacramento, CA 95828 |
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![]() 942 Blackwell Way Galt, CA 95632 |
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![]() 8409 Bloomington Dr Sacramento, CA 95828 |
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![]() 2034 Granite Bar Way Gold River, CA 95670 |
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![]() 1030 Hildebrand Cir Folsom, CA 95630 |
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![]() 1351 Woodside Glen Way Sacramento, CA 95833 |
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![]() 2615 Burnaby Way Sacramento, CA 95833 |
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18 comments :
God, how I love this site! Burn all flippers! Burn them all!
Max,
Is there any way to determine how many of these flippers are also Realtors? I've learned that quite a few flippers are licensed realtors, which gives them an edge over Joe Sixpack with regard to transaction costs.
There's no direct way. You have to run the owner's name through the national Realtor list, and the only way to do this is one-by-one.
This is fascinating. There seems to be a clear trend here, that if you purchased in 2005, your house is worth less than you paid for it. Also, many, many properties were purchased at levels over $200/sf, some as high as $275/sf in 2005. Clearly, if you are asking over $200/sf NOW, you are probably overpriced for the market. Two months ago, I was wondering how soon we would pierce the $150/sf level, and I now see some of the recent asking prices are doing just that.
It was unnerving to note how many of these were delinquent on property taxes.
I'd say $150 is coming up fast.
Yeah, it's pretty sad. I guess the flippers forgot to add in $500 a month for taxes on top of their payment...
Yes, and the Mello Roos fees in some of these places run $.10/sf per MONTH. A 2500 sf home cost an extra $250/mon or $3,000/year!! HELLO buyers. At 6.5%, that is an extra $40,000 in hidden costs for the price of the home.
Thank you for this blog and all the stats showing this market will revert to the mean over time. I almost bought near the top in this "buyer's market", not realizing we have so much further to drop in the next year or two....at least another 30%, given we have come down 15% in the last 12 months. Maybe more....
This is my favorite RE site. Just got back from Reno. Across the street from builders' model homes are FSBO's with the Red/White For Sale signs. In many cases builders just straight up slashed prices $120-$140k right off the top. Other sellers in the neighborhood FSBO or Realtor represented, still asking prices $100k+ too high. Just wait and see what happens my friends. If you bought in summer of '05 and are trying to sell now, you're done!
I bailed out of sac in 04, white flite. Best move I ever made, have fun in that liberal diverse cesspool. Left Land Park with cash in the pocket.
Second time visiting your site, it is very good. The price drops in one years are pretty amazing.
Wow, I haven't checked your blog in awhile. It seems there are more flippers in trouble + even more losses. Damn, that's all I can say at this point.
Good time to be a landlord:
According to the New York Times:
1. Landlords are enjoying booming times these days as more people are choosing to rent.
2. The supply of rental units is tight, as many rental units were sold off as condominiums.
3. Rents are rising.
4. Apartment REITs are outperforming all other REIT sectors.
Larry,
I read that article too, and must say I chuckled. I can't speak to NY, which is geographically restrained (similar to SF). I can speak to Sacramento and I will tell you there is going to be SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD PRESURE on rental rates in the next 24 months. It has already started.
JTS the Estates at Lincoln Crossing has over 100 Flippers in Trouble (FITs as Max calls them). The FITS paid $650,000 to $800,000 for homes and have been trying to rent them for $2200 and up (since they can not sell). The last rent comp is 1305 Hillwood Loop. 2700 sf for $1595/month. That is $.59/sf for a single family home!! We have not seen that kind of rent since the early to mid 1990's. Wow. The FIT paid $669,000 for the home. Taxes, Insurance, Mello Roos, Maintenance & Managment will eat up approximately $1161/month. So the Flipper NETS $434/mon!! A big .009 ROI (assuming no debt). Less than 1%. Pathetic. Add to the fact the property is DECREASING IN VALUE (the builder is knocking of $200,000 on new deals. You are also seeing more rental units coming on line to compete for limited new tenants, because the Flippers can not sell. Then add the fact most of them used 80-90% financing, and have HUGE negative cash flow each month.
Wake up Larry. It is not NY City. This Sacramento cake is baked for the next 3-4 years. It just hasn't been pulled from the oven yet.
Fantastic blog - thank you for taking the time to do this.
You guys are the bomb!
Please add a Pot House section to your blog.
Let's watch how those idiot bay area landlords and their lenders are going to get their butts scorched by the DEA who is going to seize the house.
Any takers for those mold ridden homes?
I am not looking for the housing market to suddenly turn back up on a dime. Too much inventory to work through. Some of that inventory will drop off as sellers cancel their listings (or they expire) as they were unable to sell at prices that are no longer available. These are the ones who didn't have to sell, didn't have to move, didn't have a bad mortgage to refinance, but were willing to sell at inflated prices and didn't pull it off.
So Larry,
Check back with us in 7 years, when the market has bottomed out in 2010 and cruised along the bottom for 3 more years until 2013. Your $650,000 home (2005) will be selling for $375,000 (2013) and will finally be appreiciating again, this time at a rate of 2.4% a year. You will see the 2005 prices in 2015 IF YOU'RE LUCKY. In the meantime, anyone who buys a home now will be tossing away $3,000 a MONTH in unecessary loan payments for 6 more years. THINK, THINK, THINK.
See you and your "time to buy" retoric later. Much later.
This Larry Nusbaum trolls one blog after another and pimp his book. If you have read other blogs, he even used the exact same comments (probably just copy-and-paste).
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